2020 Election Forecast
We rated every race in play in 2020. This is who we think will?win.
What American politics will look like after 2020 is anyone’s guess. But we’re taking our best shot.
The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings from Senior Elections Editor Steve Shepard for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
We’ve been updating our ratings all the way through Election Day. Some key points from our final predictions:
In the race for the White House, Democrat Joe Biden is the favorite entering Election Day. There is still a plausible path for President Donald Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it is narrow.
The race for Senate control is close to a coin flip. Democrats are slight favorites, but the GOP could still hold on.
In the House, Democrats have strengthened their grip as the national environment has swung toward them, and the party is likely to gain seats in the election and enter 2021 with a larger majority than in the previous Congress.
The ratings are the product of a rigorous process, analyzing election results, registration trends, the national political environment, public polling and private survey data. They also reflect conversations with dozens of campaign operatives, pollsters and other sources.
They’re presented on a 7-point scale: Races that are “solid” for each party are essentially locked in. Those favoring one party are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending on the strength of the party’s advantage. Contests in which one party does not hold a marked edge are rated as “toss-ups.”
Key presidential races
Key Senate races
Key House races
Key governors races
Forecasts for your state
- Ratings and analysis by Steven Shepard.
- Project management by Allan James Vestal.
- Design and development by Allan James Vestal and Beatrice Jin.
- Additional development by Andrew Briz.
- Editing by Scott Bland, Lily Mihalik, Charlie Mahtesian, Andrew McGill and Mike Zapler.
- Copy editing by Andy Goodwin, Sushant Sagar and Robin Turner.
Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the MIT Election Lab. Congressional district presidential results from Daily Kos. Additional data from U.S. Census Bureau and POLITICO reporting.
See something wrong with our data? Email [email protected].